Vocabulary > Economy > Commodities > Wheat,
Author > User:Bluemoose
commodity / -ies
natural gas, oil, gold, copper, lead, aluminum,
silver, zinc, nickel, iron
ore (used for steel),
wheat, cocoa, cotton, oats, cotton, rubber, corn, sugar, beef, pork and coffee
Boston Globe > Big Picture > Feeding 7 billion and our fragile environment
November 11, 2011
According to projections by the United Nations,
the world population has reached 7 billion and continues to grow rapidly.
While more people are living longer and healthier lives,
gaps are widening between the rich and the poor in some nations
and tens of millions of people are vulnerable to food and water shortages.
There is, of course, the issue of the impact of that sheer number on the
including pollution, waste disposal, use of natural resources and food
This post focuses on wheat and the effect of our numbers on the environment.
Wheat is the most important cereal in the world and along with rice
and corn accounts for about 73 percent of all cereal production.
It isn't surprising that 7 billion people have a lasting impact
on our world's natural resources and the environment in which we live.
The Chicago Board of Trade
established in 1848, the CBOT is a futures and options on futures exchange
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
raw ingredients > corn, soybeans, wheat
1 US bushel = 35.239072 liters
global food prices
milk and fresh produce
genetically engineered crops / modified crops
record diamond prices
U.S. producer prices
Economy’s Mixed Blessing: Commodity Prices Fall
The New York Times
By CLIFFORD KRAUSS
Mark Juull, a construction contractor for public and residential housing, has
something to be thankful for in this sluggish economy: With global commodity
prices falling, he’s saving $200 a week on fuel for his three trucks and finding
deals on aluminum, lumber and roof shingles, which are typically made from
But he says he thinks prices for his raw materials could easily shoot right back
up, so he is not passing any of his savings on to his customers. “When the
economy hit me bad, I actually lost money,” he said. “So with prices going down,
I am recouping.”
Businesses big and small are getting a break these days as the European
financial crisis and slowing growth in China, India and the United States have
pushed down the prices of a wide array of commodities in recent weeks. If the
trend continues, businesses and consumers are likely to reap benefits through
cheaper prices for goods ranging from cotton shirts to copper wiring and coffee
beans. So far, however, businesses seem to be benefiting a lot more than their
Over the last month, global oil prices have declined by about 12 percent, while
corn, copper, lead, cocoa and coffee have all dropped by 5 percent or more.
Prices of corn, cocoa, oats, cotton, rubber, coffee, aluminum, silver, zinc and
nickel are all more than 20 percent lower than a year ago.
Gasoline prices are falling precipitously, too, down nearly 20 cents over the
last month alone, to a national average of $3.54 a gallon on Wednesday. That is
nearly 45 cents below the high for the year reached in early April. The average
household consumes 1,200 gallons of gasoline a year, so every dime shaved off
the price of gas translates into a $120 annual savings, according to the Oil
Price Information Service.
“The world economy is in risk of a recession and on that possibility, commodity
prices weaken,” said Allen L. Sinai, chief global economist for Decision
Economics, a consulting firm. “Lower inflation comes with weakening economies.”
Oil is among the commodities that have fallen in price the fastest despite
continuing tensions in the Middle East and the tightening sanctions on Iran.
OPEC production has been soaring in recent months because of mushrooming crude
exports from Iraq, an almost total resumption of exports from Libya since the
fall of the Qaddafi dictatorship, and a concerted drive by Saudi Arabia to push
up production. At a meeting in Vienna on Thursday, OPEC is expected to decide to
keep production steady despite weakening prices.
In the United States, a glut of natural gas has led to a price drop of about 10
percent over the last month and more than 50 percent over the last year. Since
much of the nation’s electricity is produced by burning natural gas, that should
ease summer air-conditioning expenses for consumers. It will also help
manufacturers, especially those who make plastics, fertilizers and other
products that use natural gas as a feedstock.
But while consumers are pleased by lower fuel prices, they say they have yet to
see much relief in the prices of other products linked to commodities.
“I don’t feel food is going down,” said Connie Shanley, a homemaker shopping at
a Whole Foods store this week in West University Place, Tex. “Paper towels,
deodorant, soap, cleaning products seem to be going up. The total bill seems to
Libba Letton, a Whole Foods spokeswoman, conceded that there were limited
benefits for consumers in the short term.
“Typically these market fluctuations do not immediately affect Whole Foods
Market because we have long-term contracts with our suppliers,” she said.
Other businesses also acknowledge that prices for raw materials go up and down
far faster than the prices their customers pay for finished goods. Clothing
retail executives have said they need to sell off inventory purchased when
textile prices were higher before consumers can take full advantage of falling
cotton prices, while car parts retailers say they are still paying high shipping
costs that have not fallen along with lower fuel costs.
Paul J. Chakmak, executive vice president and chief operating officer of Boyd
Gaming, a national chain of hotels and casinos, said his company was benefiting
from lower jet fuel prices since it operates four weekly charter flights to
shuttle tourists from Honolulu to Las Vegas. Lower natural gas prices help
reduce the cost of cooking at hotel restaurants and of heating the shower water
in 11,500 rooms. But he said the energy savings were marginal compared with
labor and marketing costs, so customers would not see lower prices.
“It is a little soon,” Mr. Chakmak said, to predict any long-lasting impact.
More than anything else, economists say, the steep drop in prices reflects
deepening worries about a global economic slowdown as Greece prepares for
elections next weekend that could lead to its withdrawal from the euro currency
union, with financial repercussions across Europe and beyond. A sharp drop in
European consumer demand, especially in Italy and Spain, has already reduced
global trade in many goods.
But economists say that while manufacturers and retailers tend to pass higher
costs on to their customers, they do not always pass along their savings when
wholesale prices go down.
“Producers or stores tend to keep prices the same, and take a larger profit,”
said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist for the International Council of
Commodity prices are still generally high, and well above levels nearly four
years ago, when the global financial panic reversed a seven-year bull market.
The decline in commodity prices varies widely depending on the raw material.
Cotton prices are down nearly 50 percent over the last year, and have actually
been recovering a bit in recent weeks. Copper, a metal that is viewed by many
economists as a barometer for economic activity, is down by nearly 20 percent
for the year. Gold, normally a commodity that soars with economic uncertainty,
is higher but only by about 3 percent over the last year.
“Gold has behaved in line with risky assets, and the heightened uncertainty
globally has not rallied the same support gold garnered on previous occasions,”
according to a recent research note from Barclays commodities.
Some analysts say that commodities have sold off so steeply that they are bound
to turn around and resume the bull market that was spurred by growing demand
from emerging middle classes in the developing world.
In an investment note this week, Goldman Sachs argued that oil and some other
commodities were poised for a rebound. “Although the macroeconomic backdrop
still remains uncertain, particularly in Europe,” the bank said, “we believe
that the price risks are now shifting more to the upside.”
Some analysts note that China is still growing and importing large amounts of
oil, and can be expected to be a steady importer of raw materials.
“The fact that China is moving from an export model to an internal consumption
model may be positive for some commodities such as energy and agricultural
products,” said Nelson Louie, global head of commodities at Credit Suisse’s
asset management division.
Economy’s Mixed Blessing: Commodity Prices Fall, NYT, 13.6.2012,
Companies Raise Prices as Commodity Costs Jump
February 14, 2011
The New York Times
By STEPHANIE CLIFFORD, MOTOKO RICH and WILLIAM NEUMAN
This article is by Stephanie Clifford, Motoko Rich and William Neuman.
A package of Oscar Mayer cold cuts. A pair of Nine West boots. A Whirlpool
By the fall, people will most likely be paying more for each of them, as rising
prices hit most consumer goods, say retailers, food companies and manufacturers
of consumer products.
Cotton prices are near their highest level in more than a decade, after
adjusting for inflation, and leather and polyester costs are jumping as well.
Copper recently hit its highest level in about 40 years, and iron ore, used for
steel, is fetching extremely high prices. Prices for corn, sugar, wheat, beef,
pork and coffee are soaring. Labor overseas is becoming more expensive,
meanwhile, and so are the utility bills to keep a factory running.
“There are cost pressures from virtually everywhere,” said Wesley R. Card, the
chief executive of the Jones Group, whose brands include Nine West and Anne
Klein. After trying to keep retail prices flat or even lower during the
recession, Jones says prices for its brands will climb 15 to 20 percent by
When commodity prices started to rise last summer, many manufacturers and
retailers absorbed the costs, worried that shoppers would not pay higher prices
during the competitive holiday season or while the economy was still fragile.
Many big companies, including Kraft, Polo Ralph Lauren and Hanes, say they
cannot hold off any longer and must raise prices to protect some profits.
Whether shoppers will pay is unclear. “Consumers are not exactly in the frame of
mind or economic circumstances to say ‘Oh, pay whatever they ask,’ ” said Joshua
Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR Inc. “There’s going to be
Economists say the increases may eventually show up as inflation, though they
are not yet projecting rates that would set off alarms. Despite some fears,
inflation has been extremely low, at a rate of just 1.4 percent annually in
December. Data for January will be released Thursday, but economists expect
inflation will run about 2.5 percent this year.
Some do see the creeping signs of higher inflation, and warn that the Federal
Reserve will need to raise interest rates or at least stop pumping more money
into the economy. Others argue that such moves would choke off economic growth
sorely needed to get companies hiring again.
For consumers, higher prices in stores means there will be a little less extra
cash to spend. For companies, profits may be squeezed, making them a little less
likely to invest in equipment or to hire aggressively.
“One has to think about these higher prices not as a reason for economic
activity to get derailed,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics,
“but as a reason why the recovery is slower than might otherwise be the case.”
Given that the price of a gallon of gas is now well over $3 on average,
Americans may feel that they are already dealing with higher prices.
Adding to the cost of food won’t greatly distort most household budgets. Food,
gas, clothing, personal care products and cleaning and laundry supplies make up
less than a quarter of household spending in the United States, according to
People at the bottom of the income scale struggle more as these prices rise, of
course, because a larger share of their spending is on such essentials.
To some, the prospect of modestly higher prices is no reason to worry. In fact,
rising prices can indicate improving economic conditions. Greater demand from
fast-growing countries like China has helped push up the costs of many raw
materials — though officials there are worried about inflationary pressures, as
are some officials in Europe.
In the United States, the willingness of companies to raise prices shows they
are feeling better about the domestic recovery.
The sharp rise in commodity prices since last year has not translated into all
new records. Food commodity prices are about 8 percent below the high in the
summer of 2008, while energy prices are less than half their zenith. Prices of a
basket of other commodities are about 4 percent below the heights of mid-2008.
The cost of raw materials accounts for a small portion of the cost of most
consumer goods, as labor, processing and packaging tend to make up a larger
share of the price at the cash register. Foods like coffee, meat and milk, which
are closer to raw materials, will probably show some of the biggest price jumps.
Companies that try to pass on all their costs could meet resistance. Although
consumer spending has risen, unemployment remains at 9 percent, and average
hourly earnings are up less than 2 percent over the last year.
“These companies are constantly walking a tightrope on how far do I go,” said
Jack Russo, a consumer goods analyst at Edward Jones. “Do I offset with price or
other cost cuts, or do I just take it and have it eat into my profit margins?”
Already, rising raw material costs have cut into corporate profits.
Kimberly-Clark, which makes Kleenex tissues and Huggies diapers, said fiber- and
oil-based products had contributed to a small dip last quarter. Procter & Gamble
said earnings fell slightly in the division that makes Crest toothpaste, as well
as in its household brands unit, which makes Tide and Cascade.
Plenty of companies are indicating they will push up retail prices. Kraft, the
largest United States food manufacturer with brands like Oscar Mayer, Velveeta
and Ritz crackers, said it would raise prices on many products this year without
saying which ones or how much.
Soaring prices for coffee have pushed up costs at the coffee shop. Starbucks
said last fall that it would raise some prices. Sara Lee, which sells Hillshire
Farms meat and Senseo coffee, said that it would, too, on many items.
Restaurants, which resisted raising prices to keep customers coming through the
doors last year, are also fretting. They may take other steps too, like lowering
thermostats, shrinking packaging or reducing portion sizes to minimize the
Meat prices have surged because of the cost of feed, a decision by farmers to
raise fewer cattle and pigs, and strong demand worldwide as living standards
rise. An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease that devastated South Korean hog
farms has led to a recent surge in orders for American pork.
This year, “you’re going to have to raise prices to stay in business,” said Len
M. Steiner, owner of the Steiner Consulting Group, which works with restaurant
companies on ingredient purchasing.
Whirlpool says consumers can expect to pay 8 to 10 percent more for its products
starting April 1. Apparel companies like Polo Ralph Lauren and Brooks Brothers
said they would raise prices this year. Hanes Brands, which has already done so,
said prices on cotton-heavy products would rise again at the end of summer. If
cotton costs stay high, Hanes products could have a cumulative 30 percent
Some companies don’t think they can get away with charging more. PepsiCo, which
makes soft drinks and snacks, like Fritos, said it would be cautious.
Victoria’s Secret is nudging prices ever so slightly, with panties rising from
five for $25 to five for $25.50.
John D. Morris, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, said retailers would
probably try to manage costs in myriad ways.
Prices rose significantly in the apparel sector from 1972 to 1974, driven by
labor costs and commodity prices, he said.
“The retailers went on to have a pretty good year in ’73,” Mr. Morris said.
“Sales were up, gross margins were flat, and profit margins were up a little
bit. Retailers found a way.”
Companies Raise Prices
as Commodity Costs Jump, NYT, 14.2.2011,
Droughts, Floods and Food
February 6, 2011
The New York Times
By PAUL KRUGMAN
We’re in the midst of a global food crisis — the second in three years. World
food prices hit a record in January, driven by huge increases in the prices of
wheat, corn, sugar and oils. These soaring prices have had only a modest effect
on U.S. inflation, which is still low by historical standards, but they’re
having a brutal impact on the world’s poor, who spend much if not most of their
income on basic foodstuffs.
The consequences of this food crisis go far beyond economics. After all, the big
question about uprisings against corrupt and oppressive regimes in the Middle
East isn’t so much why they’re happening as why they’re happening now. And
there’s little question that sky-high food prices have been an important trigger
for popular rage.
So what’s behind the price spike? American right-wingers (and the Chinese) blame
easy-money policies at the Federal Reserve, with at least one commentator
declaring that there is “blood on Bernanke’s hands.” Meanwhile, President
Nicolas Sarkozy of France blames speculators, accusing them of “extortion and
But the evidence tells a different, much more ominous story. While several
factors have contributed to soaring food prices, what really stands out is the
extent to which severe weather events have disrupted agricultural production.
And these severe weather events are exactly the kind of thing we’d expect to see
as rising concentrations of greenhouse gases change our climate — which means
that the current food price surge may be just the beginning.
Now, to some extent soaring food prices are part of a general commodity boom:
the prices of many raw materials, running the gamut from aluminum to zinc, have
been rising rapidly since early 2009, mainly thanks to rapid industrial growth
in emerging markets.
But the link between industrial growth and demand is a lot clearer for, say,
copper than it is for food. Except in very poor countries, rising incomes don’t
have much effect on how much people eat.
It’s true that growth in emerging nations like China leads to rising meat
consumption, and hence rising demand for animal feed. It’s also true that
agricultural raw materials, especially cotton, compete for land and other
resources with food crops — as does the subsidized production of ethanol, which
consumes a lot of corn. So both economic growth and bad energy policy have
played some role in the food price surge.
Still, food prices lagged behind the prices of other commodities until last
summer. Then the weather struck.
Consider the case of wheat, whose price has almost doubled since the summer. The
immediate cause of the wheat price spike is obvious: world production is down
sharply. The bulk of that production decline, according to U.S. Department of
Agriculture data, reflects a sharp plunge in the former Soviet Union. And we
know what that’s about: a record heat wave and drought, which pushed Moscow
temperatures above 100 degrees for the first time ever.
The Russian heat wave was only one of many recent extreme weather events, from
dry weather in Brazil to biblical-proportion flooding in Australia, that have
damaged world food production.
The question then becomes, what’s behind all this extreme weather?
To some extent we’re seeing the results of a natural phenomenon, La Niña — a
periodic event in which water in the equatorial Pacific becomes cooler than
normal. And La Niña events have historically been associated with global food
crises, including the crisis of 2007-8.
But that’s not the whole story. Don’t let the snow fool you: globally, 2010 was
tied with 2005 for warmest year on record, even though we were at a solar
minimum and La Niña was a cooling factor in the second half of the year.
Temperature records were set not just in Russia but in no fewer than 19
countries, covering a fifth of the world’s land area. And both droughts and
floods are natural consequences of a warming world: droughts because it’s
hotter, floods because warm oceans release more water vapor.
As always, you can’t attribute any one weather event to greenhouse gases. But
the pattern we’re seeing, with extreme highs and extreme weather in general
becoming much more common, is just what you’d expect from climate change.
The usual suspects will, of course, go wild over suggestions that global warming
has something to do with the food crisis; those who insist that Ben Bernanke has
blood on his hands tend to be more or less the same people who insist that the
scientific consensus on climate reflects a vast leftist conspiracy.
But the evidence does, in fact, suggest that what we’re getting now is a first
taste of the disruption, economic and political, that we’ll face in a warming
world. And given our failure to act on greenhouse gases, there will be much
more, and much worse, to come.
Droughts, Floods and
Food, NYT, 6.2.2011,
Prices Worldwide Hit Record Levels,
Fueled by Uncertainty, U.N. Says
The New York Times
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR
NATIONS — Global food prices are moving ever higher, hitting record levels last
month as a jittery market reacted to unpredictable weather and tight supplies,
according to a United Nations report released Thursday.
It was the seventh month in a row of food price increases, according to the
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, which put out the report. And
with some basic food stocks low, prices will probably continue reaching new
heights, at least until the results of the harvest next summer are known,
“Uncertainty itself is a new factor in the market that pushes up prices and will
not push them down,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, an economist and the grain expert
at F.A.O. “People don’t trust anyone to tell them about the harvest and the
weather, so it has to await harvest time.”
Scattered bright spots in the report led experts to suggest that a repeat of the
2008 food riots stemming from similar sharp price increases might not be
imminent. Rice was slightly cheaper and meat prices stable, they noted. But the
overall uncertainty and inflation could eventually make the situation worse than
three years ago, they said.
Riots and demonstrations erupting across the Middle East are not directly
inspired by rising food prices alone, experts noted, but that is one factor
fueling the anger directed toward governments in the region. Egypt was among
more than a dozen countries that experienced food riots in 2008.
The F.A.O. price index, which tracks 55 food commodities for export, rose 3.4
percent in January, hitting its highest level since tracking began in 1990, the
report said. Countries not dependent on food imports are less affected by global
volatility. Still, food prices are expected to rise 2 percent to 3 percent in
the United States this year.
Four main factors are seen as driving prices higher: weather, higher demand,
smaller yields and crops diverted to biofuels. Volatile weather patterns often
attributed to climate change are wreaking havoc with some harvests. Heavy rains
in Australia damaged wheat to the extent that much of its usually high-quality
crop has been downgraded to feed, experts noted.
This has pushed the demand and prices for American wheat much higher, with the
best grades selling at 100 percent more than they were a year ago, Mr. Abbassian
said. The autumn soybean harvest in the United States was poor, so strong demand
means stocks are at their lowest level in 50 years, he said.
Brokers are waiting to see how acreage in the United States will be divided
between soybeans, corn and cotton, with cotton fetching record prices, Mr.
Sugar prices are also at a 30-year high, he said. Prices for cereals are rising
but still below their April 2008 peak. Oils and fats are up and close to their
2008 level, and dairy is higher but still below its 2007 peak, the report said.
Even positive news, like good rains in Argentina and a strong harvest in Africa,
has failed to keep prices from rising.
“Food prices are not only rising, but they are also volatile and will continue
this way into the future,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the World Bank managing
Changing diets around the world stemming from higher incomes, especially in
places like China and India, mean a greater demand for meat and better grains.
Although it takes time for that to translate into higher prices globally, it
does buoy demand, the experts said.
In 2009, the richest nations pledged more than $20 billion to aid agriculture in
developing countries, including $6 billion for a food security fund housed at
the World Bank. Just $925 million of those pledges has been paid, Ms.
Okonjo-Iweala noted, because of financial problems in the donor countries. That
will bring consequences, she said, as one billion people already go without
sufficient food daily.
Derek Headey, an economist with the International Food Policy Research
Institute, noted that in 2007 and 2008 many African countries were hit hard by
soaring import bills, as were nations spread across the world, like Afghanistan,
Pakistan and Ecuador.
But some of the world’s largest and poorest countries experienced rapid economic
growth and only modest food inflation, so the number of people facing food
insecurity in nations like China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam actually went
down at that time, he said.
“This time around there is still strong economic growth in these countries, but
inflation is much more of a problem,” he said. “So it is possible that the
impact could be worse in 2011, especially if food prices stay high.”
It will take some months for those figures to emerge, he added.
Food Prices Worldwide Hit Record Levels, Fueled by
Uncertainty, U.N. Says, NYT, 3.2.2011,
Agriculture Futures Fall on the CBOT
January 29, 2009
Filed at 11:30 a.m. ET
The New York Times
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
CHICAGO (AP) -- Agriculture futures were lower midday Thursday on
the Chicago Board of Trade.
Wheat for March delivery dropped 11.25 cents to $5.84 a bushel; March corn fell
5.5 cents to $3.79 a bushel; March oats lost 1 cent to $2.13 a bushel; and March
soybeans sank 16.5 cents to $9.66 a bushel.
Beef futures fell and pork futures traded higher on the Chicago Mercantile
April live cattle slipped 0.32 cent to 84.1 cents a pound; March feeder cattle
fell 0.52 cent to 90.05 cents a pound; February lean hogs gained 0.18 cent to
56.9 cents a pound; and February pork bellies advanced 0.3 cent to 78.8 cents a
Agriculture Futures Fall
on the CBOT, 29.1.2009,
Agriculture Futures Mostly Higher on Chicago BOT
December 17, 2008
Filed at 11:13 a.m. ET
The New York Times
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
CHICAGO (AP) -- Agriculture futures were mostly higher in midday trading
Wednesday on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Wheat for March delivery rose 9 cents to $5.53 a bushel, while March corn lost 1
cent to $3.93 a bushel, and March oats added 4 cents to $2.30 a bushel. January
soybeans rose 5.5 cents to $8.64 a bushel.
Meanwhile, beef and pork futures mostly rose on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
February live cattle traded up 0.40 cent to 87.20 cents a pound, while January
feeder cattle added 1.48 cents to 92.60 cents a pound. February lean hogs lost
0.35 cent to 62.10 cents a pound, but February pork bellies added 1.03 cents to
85 cents a pound.
Mostly Higher on Chicago BOT, NYT, 17.12.2008,
Food Prices Expected to Keep Going Up
November 27, 2008
The New York Times
By ANDREW MARTIN
For more than a year, food manufacturers have been shaving
package sizes and raising prices, declaring that they had little choice because
of unprecedented increases in the cost of raw ingredients like corn, soybeans
Now, with the price of grains and other commodities plunging, it may seem
logical that grocery prices will follow. But while prices for some items like
milk and fresh produce are dropping, those of most packaged items and meat are
holding firm or even increasing. Experts warn that consumers should not expect
lower prices anytime soon on most items at the grocery store or in restaurants.
Government and industry economists project that the overall cost of food will
continue to climb in 2009, led by increases for meat and poultry. A big reason,
they say, is that food companies still have not caught up with the prolonged
run-up in commodity prices, which remain above historical averages despite
coming down from their highs early this year.
The Agriculture Department is forecasting that food prices will increase 3.5 to
4.5 percent in 2009, compared with an estimated 5 to 6 percent increase by the
end of this year.
Some economists project even steeper increases next year. For instance, Bill
Lapp, principal at Advanced Economic Solutions in Omaha, said he expected food
prices to jump 7 to 9 percent next year.
“For the last 21 months, food manufacturers, restaurants and livestock producers
have been absorbing significant costs that in my view are likely to be passed on
to consumers in 2009 and beyond,” said Mr. Lapp, a former chief economist at
While predicting future food prices is an inexact science, data released by the
Labor Department last week suggested the forecasters might be right.
Overall consumer prices recorded the biggest drop in the history of the Consumer
Price Index, but food prices continued to inch upward, albeit at a slower pace
than in previous months. The C.P.I. showed that grocery prices rose 0.1 percent
Some of the more visible items on grocery shelves, including produce and dairy
products, dropped sharply in recent weeks, but not enough to offset the general
trend of rising prices. Restaurant prices rose 0.5 percent in October.
Commodity prices began climbing rapidly in the fall of 2007, and food companies
were hit hard by the increases. They tried to slow eroding profit margins by
cutting operating costs, making packages smaller and raising prices.
Some companies, like Kellogg and Heinz, have managed to offset the higher
ingredient costs and post robust profits by using shrewd commodity hedges and by
raising prices without losing many customers. They also benefited from a trend
of consumers eating out less and buying more groceries.
But other food companies have struggled. Hershey, for instance, locked in high
cocoa prices this year only to see prices drop this fall, analysts say. And meat
and poultry companies have been hit by higher feed costs and a limited ability
to charge higher prices, at least in the short term.
Now, even though costs for ingredients like corn and wheat have dropped, meat
and poultry providers say they still have not raised prices enough to cover
their increased costs. And packaged food manufacturers are unlikely to lower
prices because commodity costs remain relatively high and they are still trying
to rebuild eroded margins.
Michael Mitchell, a spokesman for Kraft Foods, said that the company’s food
ingredient costs this year were running $2 billion higher than in 2007, a 13
percent increase, but that the company had raised its overall prices by only 7
William P. Roenigk, senior vice president and chief economist for the National
Chicken Council, said his industry had been losing money for more than a year.
Chicken producers are now trying to recover those costs by reducing production,
which will eventually alter the balance between supply and demand. “The time is
coming when we’re going to see a very significant increase in the retail price
of chicken,” he said.
The restaurant industry, which has been battered by a sharp drop in customers,
also says it has not been able to raise prices enough to keep pace with the cost
People in the restaurant business said they did not like raising prices during
an economic downturn. “If anything in this environment, one would be looking at
the ability to offer much greater emphasis on value pricing in restaurant
menus,” said Hudson Riehle, chief economist of the National Restaurant
Association. “In contrast, exactly the opposite is happening. Our operators are
being forced to raise menu prices at the highest rate since 1990.”
Predictions about food prices are subject to change because commodity prices are
unpredictable. Ephraim Leibtag, an economist for the Agriculture Department,
said food inflation would slow by the middle of next year if commodity prices
remained low. “Right now the forecast is about 4 percent, but that would be
lowered if we do not see any surge in commodity costs over the next few months,”
A reason that overall food prices are expected to continue increasing is the lag
between price increases for basic commodities and for finished food products in
the grocery store, particularly for meat and processed foods. Consider the price
of corn, an ingredient in things like cereal and breaded shrimp. It was not too
long ago that corn hovered around $2 or $3 a bushel.
But corn prices began climbing last fall and peaked around $8 a bushel in June.
They have since dropped to about $3.50 a bushel, still above the historical
norm. Some food manufacturers locked in prices for corn and other commodities in
the spring and summer, fearing that prices could go even higher. But prices fell
instead, and they are now stuck with the higher prices until their contracts
When costs go up for livestock producers, they are often unable to immediately
raise prices because those prices are set on the open market, which is dictated
by supply and demand. Instead, they begin reducing the size of their herds or
flocks, which eventually leads to less meat on the market and higher prices. But
reducing livestock production can take months to years, and in the interim it
can actually suppress prices as breeding animals are slaughtered to reduce
The prospect of more food inflation is inflaming a debate over its causes. Many
food manufacturers and economists maintain that one culprit is government
policies promoting the use of ethanol fuel made from corn.
About a third of the corn crop is used for ethanol, putting ethanol producers in
competition with livestock farmers and food manufacturers. The result, they
contend, is that prices for corn are now higher and more volatile.
“The connection of oil prices to agricultural commodities is new as of 2007, and
it’s a major game changer for those in the food production business,” said
Thomas E. Elam, president of FarmEcon, a consulting firm.
But ethanol advocates counter that the food industry’s arguments have been
proved false, saying that corn prices have declined as ethanol production is
increasing. Matt Hartwig, spokesman for the Renewable Fuels Association, an
ethanol industry group, said food companies were “very quick to tell the
American public that they had to raise food prices because corn was so
expensive, and that the reason corn was so expensive was corn-based ethanol.”
Mr. Hartwig added: “Now, clearly, we know that relationship doesn’t exist. If
ethanol isn’t the reason, what is the real reason for food prices going up?”
Food Prices Expected
to Keep Going Up, NYT, 27.11.2008,
The Food Chain
Fields of Grain and Losses
November 21, 2008
The New York Times
By DAVID STREITFELD
WALTERS, Okla. — The farmers said it would not last, and they were right.
When the price of wheat, corn, soybeans and just about every other food grown in
the ground began leaping skyward two years ago, farmers were pleased, of course.
But generally they refused to believe that the good times would be permanent.
They had seen too many booms that were inevitably followed by busts.
Now, with the suddenness of a hailstorm flattening a field, hard times are back
on the American farmstead. The price paid for crops is dropping much faster than
the cost of growing them.
The government reported this week that the cost of goods and services nationwide
fell by a record amount in October as frantic businesses tried to lure
customers. While lower prices are good for consumers in the short run, a
prolonged stretch of deflation would wreak havoc as companies struggled to stay
In this lonesome stretch near the Texas border, farmers are getting an early
taste of a deflationary world. They have finished planting next year’s winter
wheat, turning the fields a brilliant emerald green. But it cost about $6 a
bushel in fuel, seed and fertilizer to put the crop in. That is $1 more than
they could sell it for today, and never mind other expenses like renting land.
This looming loss sharpens their regret that they did not unload more of this
year’s crop back when they harvested it in May. They knew the boom would end,
but not so soon.
“I waited all my life for wheat to go from $4 to $5,” said Jimmy Wayne Kinder, a
fourth-generation farmer. “Then it hit $10, and we were all asking, ‘What are we
going to do?’ ”
Mr. Kinder, who farms about 5,000 acres with his father, James Kinder Jr., and
his brother, Kevin, held onto much of his wheat, hoping that prices would go
still higher. Instead, they plunged. “I lay in bed at night kicking myself,” Mr.
The farmers in Walters still have to worry about drought and floods and grain
bugs and army worms, as they have for decades, but they have new anxieties
beyond their control: Manic commodity markets. A rising dollar that makes their
crops more expensive overseas. And — an urgent new concern this fall — the
solvency of their banks.
In September, when banks began failing at the height of the credit crisis, Mr.
Kinder called Mickey Harris, his banker at the First State Bank of Temple. “Are
we going to be O.K.?” he asked.
Mr. Harris offered reassurances that the privately owned, one-location bank was
fine, but he feels the fate of farmers, until recently one of the strongest
sectors in a slumping economy, is less certain.
Unless wheat stages an unexpected recovery, Mr. Harris said, “a year from now
these farmers’ net worth will surely be less.”
Oklahoma exports two-thirds of its wheat, more than the country as a whole. That
worked to the state’s advantage in 2007 and the first half of 2008, as a
combination of bad harvests in Australia, the cheap dollar and rising Asian
consumption created intense international demand.
The state’s farmers responded, naturally enough, by ramping up production.
Because of better weather and therefore a better yield, 166.5 million bushels of
wheat were harvested in Oklahoma this spring, a 10-year high. And because of the
high prices, the crop was valued for the first time at more than $1 billion,
nearly twice as much as 2007 and nearly three times as much as 2006.
“They made a killing,” said Kim Anderson, a grain economist at Oklahoma State
Assuming, that is, they sold. The farmers who cashed in at the right moment are
acquiring legendary status. “I know a fellow that sold some wheat for $12 a
bushel. That was almost beyond belief,” said James Kinder, 74.
But his son suspects that most were like the Kinder family: they either did not
sell or did not sell enough.
The Kinders still have about 40 percent of their wheat, stored on the farm and
in commercial grain facilities. “Farmers are terrible marketers,” said Jimmy
Wayne Kinder, 50. “We fall in love with our crop.”
It was the same misguided optimism that caused homeowners to think their houses
would always keep increasing at a 20 percent annual clip. Farmers across the
country fell prey to it.
David Kanable at the Oregon Farm Center, a mill near Madison, Wis., was paying
$7.25 a bushel for corn in June. “We never had a farmer lock in at that price.
They wanted $8,” Mr. Kanable said. On Thursday, the mill was paying $3.17 a
When commodity prices were feverish, the price of good farmland exploded, too.
Cropland values rose about 20 percent in the Midwest farm belt last year,
capping a multiyear rise, according to the Agriculture Department. Walters and
other areas southern Oklahoma, where the land is not as rich and the crops have
to be coaxed from the soil, were swept up in the excitement.
The previous land boom around Walters was in the late 1970s, a reaction to the
high commodity prices of that era. Land went for as much as a thousand dollars
“Doctors and lawyers were buying the land from farmers,” said the senior Mr.
Kinder. “Then prices fell, and those same doctors and lawyers were begging the
farmers to take it off their hands.”
Prices dropped to $500 an acre. Only in the last few years did they begin to
approach the records set three decades ago.
On a recent sparkling Saturday morning, two dozen farmers showed up for an
auction of 160 acres owned by a Kansas woman whose family had held it for
decades. The farmer who worked the land, Russ Scherler, brought his checkbook
but little hope that he would be top bidder.
Rick High, the auctioneer, chatted up the farmers from the back of his pickup,
saying that credit was tight but land was a safe haven. His opening demand:
$150,000. Not a farmer moved. “How about 120?” Mr. High asked. No luck. And so
the price sank to $60,000, where the first bid was made.
From there, it slowly climbed back up, finally going for $122,000 — about $760
an acre — to a farmer who had sold some land earlier and now needed to buy to
avoid tax charges.
Mr. Scherler was disappointed, but not surprised. “Missed me by about $30,000,”
A half-mile up the road, a parcel the same size that was deemed slightly
inferior had sold a few weeks earlier for $128,000. The market for land is
One reason is that the investors and part-time farmers are once again dropping
away. Jim Mumford, an equipment dealer in Walters, says demand for small
tractors has dried up. Where part-timers might once have put in a small crop,
there are only weeds. “They’re holding off till things get better,” Mr. Mumford
The Kinders are making their own adjustments.
“The market says, ‘Here’s the price. You want to make any money, get below it,’
” said Jimmy Wayne Kinder.
One way to do that is by diversifying, so they bought 2,000 head of cattle. This
has its own risks: a hard winter will mean less grazing for the cattle, which
translates into buying more feed. It is also a gamble that cattle prices will
rise instead of sinking, as they have been all fall.
Another way to get under the market price is by trying to do more with less. The
Kinders are practically spoon-feeding nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers onto
It is a queasy time. “Given the current economic environment, I don’t think
anyone can predict commodity prices,” said Mr. Anderson, the economist.
If production costs do not fall or wheat prices do not rise by next spring, he
said, farmers will be contacting their representatives in Congress and
requesting higher price supports.
The elder Mr. Kinder, who is pessimistic enough to think land values will once
again fall 50 percent, is taking it philosophically.
“People have great prosperity and everyone gets spoiled,” he said. “Then there
are times of great hardship and everyone learns patience.”
Fields of Grain and
Losses, NYT, 21.11.2008,
Commodity Prices Tumble
October 14, 2008
The New York Times
By CLIFFORD KRAUSS
HOUSTON — The global financial panic and the economic slowdown
have put at least a temporary end to the commodity bull market of the last seven
years, sending prices tumbling for many of the raw ingredients of the world
Since the spring and early summer, when prices for many commodities peaked amid
fears of permanent shortage, wheat and corn — two cereals at the base of the
human food chain — have dropped more than 40 percent. Oil has dropped 44
percent. Metals like aluminum, copper and nickel have declined by a third or
The swift turnaround is the brightest economic news on the horizon for
consumers, putting money into their pockets at a time they need it badly.
Gasoline prices in the United States are falling precipitously — by about 24
cents over the last five days, to a national average of $3.21 a gallon on Monday
— and analysts said they could go below $3 a gallon nationally this fall, down
from a high of $4.11 a gallon in July.
Prices for most commodities remain elevated by past standards, and they rose a
bit on Monday amid the broad market rally. But the trend seems to be downward as
traders weigh the prospect that the global economic crisis will lead to sharp
drops in demand. The big question is whether prices will drop all the way to
long-term norms or whether Asia’s continuing economic boom has set a floor.
The rapid commodity decline has eased fears of inflation, a reason central banks
were able to lower interest rates around the world last week in an effort to
salvage economic growth. It also represents a fundamental shift of view that is
driving markets these days.
A scant few months ago, Americans were seen as participants in a bidding war
with the emerging Chinese, Indian, Russian and Brazilian middle classes for a
basket full of products. But that was before an extreme slowdown in demand for
things as diverse as gasoline and aluminum and the retreat of investment money
from commodity futures into safer havens like government bonds.
The commodity bust began before last week’s broad market declines, though the
panic has exacerbated the pressure on commodities. Oil dropped by 10 percent on
Friday alone, but then recovered some of that loss Monday to settle at $81.19 a
barrel, far below its high in July of $145.29.
“Commodities followed the euphoria cycle that we had along with housing,” said
Robert J. Shiller, an economist at Yale who specializes in market bubbles. “We
had the idea that the world is growing very fast, people are getting very rich
and, by the way, we are running out of everything. That theory doesn’t seem so
good when the economy is collapsing.”
Some analysts, while welcoming the recent declines, say they believe that prices
are likely to remain above long-term norms. Food, in particular, could be a
continuing problem: today’s prices are still too high to allow many people in
developing countries to afford adequate diets. Nor have the recent declines been
passed along in American grocery stores, at least as of yet. The United Nations
has projected that global food prices will remain elevated for years.
The price increases of recent years served their economic function, calling
forth additional supplies of many commodities — farmers planted every acre they
could, mining companies opened new mines and oil companies went to the far
corners of the earth to drill wells. In many cases, the prices also caused
demand to decline even as supply started rising.
Americans, the world’s largest fuel consumers, have been cutting back on
gasoline all year, and the decline is approaching double digits. Motorists
pumped 9.5 percent less gasoline for the week ended Oct. 3 compared with the
same week a year earlier, according to MasterCard Advisors, which tracks
spending. In a report on Friday, the International Energy Agency cut its
forecast for global oil consumption yet again, projecting that 2008 would end
with the slowest demand growth in 15 years.
Big increases in world wheat production because of increased acreage in the
United States, Canada, Russia and much of Europe have brought wheat prices to
less than $6 a bushel today from nearly $13 in March.
Soybean prices have dropped to $9 a bushel from $16 since July, in part because
of a record crop in China and a slowdown in Chinese imports. Corn prices are
also easing amid expanded supply.
A theory among economists is that commodity prices are still at the beginning of
a steep fall as the credit squeeze takes the world economy into a deep
“When you have a seven-year bull run, you are going to have more than a
four-month correction, and we are just beginning our fourth month,” said Richard
Feltes, senior vice president and director of commodity research at MF Global
Research. “We have got more deflation coming in the housing sector, in capital
assets, and it’s going to continue in commodities as well.”
But many economists say a lasting price collapse is unlikely because the
emerging middle class and growing populations in developing economies will
continue to have strong appetites for fuels and metals.
Some say that the other commodity bull markets in modern history — approximately
spanning 1906 to 1923, 1933 to 1955 and 1968 to 1982 — lasted more than twice as
long as the current run. They included some sharp corrections before they ran
their course, suggesting that the current drop, however precipitous, could be
Though the picture is slightly different for every commodity, prices generally
hit a low point for the decade soon after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11,
2001, then rose as the global economy strengthened in the following years. From
late 2001 until mid-2008, the price of oil rose 800 percent, copper rose 700
percent and wheat rose 400 percent.
The decline of recent weeks has taken virtually every major commodity more than
halfway back to its late 2001 price, adjusted for inflation. The recent drop has
been so rapid that if the pace continued, it would take only a few more weeks to
erase the gains of the bull market entirely.
That suggests to some analysts that prices could hit a floor fairly soon. “The
underlying fundamentals of strong demand for energy, food and industrial
commodities will come back,” said Michael Lewis, global head of commodities
research for Deutsche Bank.
Many analysts think oil could fall to $70 a barrel in the next few months, if
not sooner. But it is hard for them to believe it will go much lower: oil is not
becoming easier to find, as fields in Mexico peter out and suppliers like Iran,
Nigeria and Venezuela remain unreliable.
The costs of finding oil in deep waters or mining oil sands in Canada remain
high, in the $60 to $70 a barrel range — and since those are now vital sources
of supply, they could help put a floor under the oil price. Additionally, the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could cut production to try to
shore up prices, probably at an emergency meeting it will hold Nov. 18. Analysts
note that the credit crisis and economic slowdown will inevitably stall new
industrial projects, reducing demand for metals. But the falling prices will
also discourage new mining and drilling. When economic growth resumes, that
could produce metal shortages that would drive prices back up.
The biggest single factor that will decide whether a prolonged bull market in
commodities is over, or just in a lull, is the Chinese economy. The industrial
development of that country in recent years was responsible for much of the
world’s increased consumption of copper, aluminum and zinc, and almost a third
of the increase in oil consumption.
Chinese growth has slowed but is still running above 12 percent, and that
country is expected to undertake some huge projects in coming months as it
repairs damage from earthquakes and storms.
Kevin Norrish, a senior commodities researcher at Barclays Capital, said that in
a recent visit to China he found that domestic demand for copper was still
strong but that exports were weakening. Chinese copper wire manufacturers, he
said, “are very depressed indeed because their export orders have fallen a long
He said that as high as prices for commodities rose in recent years, the bull
run in the late 1970s and early 1980s was even more buoyant. Of all the major
commodities, only oil at its peak in July traded at a higher price than in the
last bull market, adjusted for inflation.
That previous bull run, stimulated by years of high economic growth and
inflation, was followed by nearly two decades of weak prices that accompanied
the transition in the United States from an industrial to a service economy.
Then China and India appeared on the world stage as major economies at the turn
of the new century, followed by the oil-driven economy in Russia and greater
consumption in the Middle East the last four or five years. Mr. Norrish is one
of many commodities analysts who think that the story of China, India and other
developing countries’ spurring commodity demand is not over.
“What we are seeing is a pause in what we see as a very, very long bull run,”
Mr. Norrish said.
Tumble, NYT, 14.10.2008,
commodities > coal
commodities > oil > gas
commodities > gold
economy > capitalism
economy > currencies, credit card, money
economy > currencies > euro
economy > business >
companies / firms / corporations
economy > inflation, deflation, stagflation
economy > consumer
economy > consumer
> shopping, retailers
consumer > e-commerce, online shopping / retailers
economy > consumer
economy > auction, bid
economy > lottery, gambling
economy > debt,
economy > U.S.
economy > taxes
economy > banks > Bank of
economy > banks
economy > markets / stocks / stock markets
economy > down
economy > bailout
economy > downturn / recession / depression / recovery
economy > jobs > unemployment
economy > jobs > pensions
economy > housing market
economy > real estate > renting > tenant / landlord
poor / poverty
Transports > Car
Earth > Pollution > Oil spill