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auxiliaires
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modaux
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sens / valeurs
énonciation première
hypothèse, conjecture, supposition, éventualité, risque, inconnu
The Guardian
p. 1 19.3.2007
The Guardian
p. 1 31.12.2008
http://digital.guardian.co.uk/guardian/2008/12/31/pdfs/gdn_081231_ber_1_21567620.pdf
The Guardian
p. 1 16.2.2007
The Guardian
p. 46 25.5.2007
Libya may be
placing corpses at bombed sites:
Gates
WASHINGTON | Sat Mar 26, 2011
7:25pm EDT
Reuters
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence reports
suggest that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's forces
have placed the bodies of people they have killed at the sites of coalition air
strikes so they can blame the West for the deaths, Secretary of Defense Robert
Gates said in a television interview on Saturday.
"We do have a lot of intelligence reporting about Gaddafi taking the bodies of
the people he's killed and putting them at the sites where we've attacked,"
Gates said according to interview excerpts released by CBS News' "Face the
Nation with Bob Schieffer" program, which will air on Sunday.
A U.S.-led coalition began air strikes against Libya a week ago to establish a
no-fly zone over the oil-exporting North African country and to try to prevent
Gaddafi from using his air force to attack people rebelling against his rule.
Last week Libyan officials said nearly 100 civilians had been killed in the
coalition strikes, but Western military officials at the time denied any
civilians had been killed.
"The truth of the matter is we have trouble coming up with proof of any civilian
casualties that we have been responsible for," Gates said in the television
interview.
Asked if Gaddafi's days were numbered, Gates replied: "I wouldn't be hanging any
new pictures if I were him."
U.S. officials have said the goal of the military action is to protect
civilians, not to topple Gaddafi, though they have made no secret of their
desire for him to leave power.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, appearing on the same program, said there
were signs that Gaddafi's aides were becoming increasingly nervous.
"The people around him, based on all of the intelligence and all of the outreach
that we ourselves are getting from some of those very same people, demonstrate
an enormous amount of anxiety," she said according to the interview excerpts.
(Editing by Christopher Wilson)
Libya may be placing
corpses at bombed sites: Gates, R, 26.3.2011,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/26/us-libya-usa-bodies-idUSTRE72P2JU20110326
Analysis: Libya may face civil war
as Gaddafi's grip loosens
Mon, Feb 21 2011
Reuters
By Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent
DUBAI (Reuters) - Libya faces chaos and possible civil war as Muammar Gaddafi
fights to maintain his 42-year grip on power in the face of a popular uprising.
Even if he flees -- assuming he could find a refuge -- Gaddafi would leave a
nation with few normal structures for a peaceful transition, after four decades
of his idiosyncratic rule.
"Any post-Gaddafi period is fraught with uncertainty," said Middle East analyst
Philip McCrum. "There is no organized opposition, there are no civil
institutions around which people could ordinarily gather.
"The opposition in exile is small and disparate. It will therefore take a long
time for a new political order to establish itself and in the meantime,
political tensions will run high as various competing groups, such as the
tribes, the army, Islamists and liberals vie for power."
Dozens of people were reported killed in Libya overnight as anti-government
protests reached the capital, Tripoli, for the first time. Several eastern
cities appeared to be in opposition hands. The revolt has already cost more than
200 lives.
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, one of the mercurial leader's sons, appeared on state TV
overnight, mixing threats with appeals for calm, saying the army would enforce
security at any price.
"We will keep fighting until the last man standing, even the last woman
standing," he said, waving a finger at the camera.
McCrum said Saif al-Islam's speech had probably scotched any hopes among young
Libyans that he could be a force for reform.
The uprising in Libya already looks set to be the bloodiest in a series of
popular protests racing across the Middle East from Algeria to Yemen.
Possibilities for compromise look slim.
CIVIL WAR
"Libya is the most likely candidate for civil war because the government has
lost control over part of its own territory," said Shadi Hamid, of the Brookings
Doha Center in Qatar.
"Benghazi was lost to the opposition and there are reports of other smaller
cities going the same way. It is not something the Gaddafi regime is willing to
tolerate."
Benghazi, a city in eastern Libya -- the region that is home to most of the
country's oilfields -- is a traditional hotbed of anti-Gaddafi sentiment among
tribes hostile to his rule.
As the protests have snowballed, Islamic leaders and once-loyal tribes have
declared for the opposition.
Saad Djebbar, a London-based Algerian lawyer who for years defended Libya in the
Lockerbie airline bombing case, said Gaddafi must go.
"I'm sure he has armed to the teeth his own tribesmen and those tribes linked to
him. I'm sure he will be also giving them as much cash as possible," Djebbar
told Reuters.
He said Gaddafi had narrowed the circle of his power to his close family and
tribe in recent years, alienating allies and tribes who had backed him after he
seized power in 1969.
"Gaddafi will go down fighting and Libyans will butcher each other. It's a fight
to the bitter end. If he activates the tribal card, it will only turn Libya into
another Somalia."
Djebbar said Western powers should consider protecting any rebel-held areas such
as eastern Libya by using air power to bar Gaddafi from bombing his foes into
submission -- similar to the no-fly zone they set up in Iraqi Kurdistan after
the 1991 Gulf War to deter Saddam Hussein from reasserting control there.
CORNERED ANIMAL
"Gaddafi is like a cornered animal -- when threatened he attacks ferociously,"
said McCrum. "Throughout his rule, he has shown no qualms in brutally
suppressing any opposition.
"He is highly unlikely to make any concessions and if he goes down, he will take
as many people with him as possible," he added, predicting that events in Libya
"will only get bloodier."
McCrum said he doubted the army would turn on Gaddafi or emulate the role played
by the military in facilitating the departure of long-serving autocrats in Egypt
and Tunisia.
"The army will not actually effect regime change as in Egypt. They will simply
perpetuate the status quo to protect their own interests," he said, noting that
main arms of the security services were controlled by sons of Gaddafi.
Libya, once a pariah accused of sponsoring international terrorism,
rehabilitated itself by paying compensation to victims of the Lockerbie bombing
and other attacks, and by renouncing its efforts to acquire weapons of mass
destruction.
"If ever there was a regime which exposes the West's hypocrisy, Gaddafi's is
it," McCrum said.
"The West has fallen over itself to rehabilitate Gaddafi so they can get at his
oil and now it will pay the price in political capital -- if it has any left.
In terms of investment risk, it's obviously very serious," said Julien
Barnes-Dace, Middle East analyst at Control Risks.
"People are just pulling out. Even if Gaddafi survives, there will be huge
worries and reputational issues about doing business in Libya. Libya would be
much more isolated after this."
Analyst Geoff Porter said Gaddafi had "nowhere to go," unlike ousted Arab
leaders such as Tunisia's Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, who found refuge in Saudi
Arabia, or Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, in internal exile in Sharm el-Sheikh.
"Possibly the only place he can go is Zimbabwe," he said. "So there is no
alternative. (If he is toppled), he will be like Saddam Hussein and end up
hiding in a hole."
(Editing by Richard Mably and Mark Trevelyan)
Analysis: Libya may face
civil war as Gaddafi's grip loosens, R, 21.2.2011,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/21/us-libya-chaos-idUSTRE71K48T20110221
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